Showing posts from November, 2022

The uselessness of polls and unsupported tanks

I had the dubious pleasure of reading this article by Nate Silver on Fivethirtyeight in which he tried to muster a lukewarm argument against critics of poll-based electoral predictions. Reading it, I got the feeling that it was an attempted response to recent arguments by various observers about the growing irrelevance of Silver, his poll algorithms (which have been more miss than hit since the 2016 election) and of the uselessness today of landline-based political polls.  Arguments like this: And this: Looking back, Fivethirtyeight’s response was as laughable as their  final prediction for the Senate in the US 2022 mid-terms  - and probably their  final prediction for the House .  Indeed, Fivethirtyeight’s 2022 predictions have been almost as useless as their  predictions for a Clinton win in 2016 . It makes me think of how the use of tanks in warfare has changed since WW2 - especially their use without infantry support  in an era of guided missiles (javelins, NLAWS, Panzerfausts etc